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To Analyze a Sales Population, Consider the Expanded Percentile Curve

 

(Click on the image to enlarge)

As we know, not all segments of the market move in tandem. When the market starts to move up, it generally begins at the bottom of the value strata (start-up homes) and graduates up the value ladder. Therefore, while analyzing a large sales population, it is prudent to use the entire percentile curve (as shown in the above Miami graphic) rather than just the Median as it may musk the actual pictures on both ends of the curve, say below the 25th percentile and above the 75th percentile and more precisely below the 10th and above the 90th.

How to Analyze a Sales Population

1. Single Parameter – Instead of just one parameter (like the Median), it's better to consider the expanded percentile curve, preferably 1st percentile to 99th percentile, avoiding minimum and maximum as they may skew the picture as well.

2. Sample Selection – When confronted with all sales meaning both arms-length and non-arms length and virtually no time to validate the sales, the 5th to 95th percentile sample is more meaningful, without having to spend time on manual validations. Conversely, if the sample comprises only the arms-length sales, the 1st to 99th percentile range could be more meaningful.

3. Outlier Analysis – Therefore, while studying outliers of a sample lacking validation, it's better to consider only the cases below the 5th and above the 95th percentile. Likewise, below 1st and above the 99th could be a better starting point for a validated sample, gradually extending out to the outliers on both ends of the percentile curve (as time permits).

4. Sales Timeframe – When the timeframe is extended (9 to 24 months), sales must be time-adjusted, preferably at the monthly level (deriving monthly time factors). If the sample comprises 3-4 years' of sales, quarterly adjustments will make more statistical sense. When an extended series (e.g., 10+ years) is analyzed, annual factors would be appropriate. Most extended series analyses are performed to detect seasonality in the data.

5. Growth Factors – As we all know, the residential market is as local as it gets. Therefore, a good sales analysis must additionally be broken down to the sub-market level as long as those sub-markets are well-established and accepted. Since the growth rates vary by the market, time adjustment factors must be derived at the sub-market level (e.g., 12% in our example for the City of Miami). Applying national or even regional factors could result in flawed and indefensible results. Time adjustment in AVM is generally different (will be discussed later).

6. Use of Median – Due to time constraints, If one has to choose one parameter to ascertain time's impact, it must be the Median, as it is less prone to outliers (outliers heavily influence average, often distorting the analysis). In an even like that, the sale's Median must be compared with the normalized (by Bldg SF) Median, ensuring they are close to each other.

(Click on the image to enlarge)

7. Spatial Distribution – As part of the sales sampling, one must also ensure that the sales are spatially distributed in line with the population, so a meaningful spatial chart is in order alongside the data tables. In the above example, one must understand that the Median ASP and Median Bldg SF are mutually exclusive, but they may be connected to get a general idea of the ASP/SF, but not for any serious analysis. To analyze the normalized ASP/SF, one needs to create the organic variable (row-wise ASP/SF) and the run percentile stats.

8. Creating Sales Ratios – In the above example, in addition to the percentile analysis of sales, the distribution of sales ratios (ratio of County Market Values to Time-adjusted Sales or ASP) is shown, thus connecting the apples-to-apples dots. The spatial chart additionally depicts the stratified sales ratios. Caution: While creating the sales ratios, one must time adjust the sales to the valuation date (in this case, 01-01-2019) as the tax roll values are as of that date, or else it would be an apples-to-oranges.

9. Regression Values – Ideally, ASP should be modeled (using multiple regressions or any other industry-accepted methodology). The resulting sales ratios of the regression values (which are smoother and statistically more significant) used all analyses, Including defining and removal of the model outliers. Regression values could also be used to challenge the tax roll market values additionally. When there is a paucity of comps, such regression values could also be used to proxy actual comps in a comparables grid.

In a nutshell, to get a better picture of the overall market, an expanded percentile distribution analysis of sales is significantly more meaningful than a simplistic median-based sales analysis. Additionally, normalized values and spatial sales ratios could provide better insight into the building blocks.

-Sid Som, MBA, MIM

homequant@gmail.com

Link to the Book

Sales Ratio Study is largely Ineffective, if not Counter-productive

A Sales Ratio study examines the relationship of Market Values on the Assessment Roll to Time-adjusted Sale Prices (adjusted to the Valuation/Taxable Status Date). A Sales Ratio study, unlike an Automated Valuation Model (AVM), is not an econometric solution that could be used in any meaningful decision-making. Unfortunately, sales ratio studies are often developed and used to test the assessment rolls' metallurgy and progression.

Since sales ratios are developed using sales complexes only, two very similar homes in a given neighborhood - with very different effective ages, say 15 vs. 50 - will be evaluated alike. On the other hand, a properly-developed AVM will effectively assess the differences and return values that are different, yet statistically significant and econometric.

What does a sales complex comprise?

-Sale Price

-Sale Date (to time-adjust sales to valuation/status date)

-Sale Validation (to ensure only arms-length sales are used)

-Classification (to ensure the right class of properties is used)

-Market Value (from the Tax Assessment Roll)

-Assessed Value (when Residential Assessment Ratio or RAR is also required)

Additionally, some consultants retain a few other variables like Town (to evaluate sub-markets if it is a county-wide study) and Living Area (to consider normalized scenarios). Of course, sub-market and normalized ratios are statutorily rare.

So, why does a sales ratio study become an ineffective solution? Let's consider the following reasons...

1. Sales Ratio Studies are at best Heuristic analyses -- Most large and even medium-sized tax jurisdictions have moved to primarily AVM-based tax rolls. Therefore, when the raw sale prices (generally time-adjusted) are compared with the scientifically-derived AVM values (to compute the sale ratio), it is no longer an apples-to-apples comparison. Sale prices do indeed reflect property characteristics (in addition to location, etc.). They are nonetheless highly subjective, reflecting individual (un-equalized) economic behavior, including personal tastes and preferences (e.g., when one is bent on buying a pink house, one will overpay). Exterior walls and conditions are actual modeling variables, while exterior color is not. Therefore, the presence of data variables will force AVMs (hence the tax roll values) to ignore those emotional premiums. Simultaneously, the standalone sale prices in sales ratio studies will fail to differentiate and ignore them.

2. Sales Ratio Studies do not require "Representative" Tests -- The underlying assumption of a sales sample is that it statistically represents the population it is derived from. But that assumption is not necessarily valid. When the sample is large, it tends to be representative at the body of the curve (between the 25th and 75th percentiles), but not necessarily on short (<25th percentile) and long end (>75th percentile) of the curve. The reason is simple: Not all segments of the market move in tandem. When a market starts its upswing, it usually begins at the lower end of the curve, followed by the mid-range and further up. Thus, without a proper representative test, a sales ratio study is, at best, a hit or miss. The additional sub-market or normalized ratios remain equally unreliable.

3. Sales Ratio Studies do not require Price Segmentation Tests -- Sales ratio studies are perfect "one size fits all," meaning only a median-based ratio does the real trick. The absence of the price-segmented (<25th percentile; 25th to 50th percentiles; 50th to 75th percentiles; >75th percentile) ratios is, at best, a limited scope analysis, which is the primary reason why many tax rolls are regressive, i.e., why the middle-class neighborhoods heavily subsidize the wealthy districts. State Boards and Industry Technical bodies must additionally (in addition to the median ratio) require the full price-segmented ratios to minimize the incidence of compensating errors, leading to fair and equitable adjustments    

4. Sales Ratio Studies do not require Champ-Challenger Validations -- Before an AVM is finalized, it is optimized and then tested against a mutually exclusive hold-out sample (Challenger). If the hold-out test results are very similar, the model is considered final (Champ) and is ready to be applied to the population. Of course, when it comes to sales ratio studies, there are no such requirements. A forward sales sample would be an ideal challenger. For example, if the statutory ratio is developed off of the 2018 calendar year sales, it could be tested against a forward sales sample (comprising validated Q1/Q2-2019 sales). Seasoned listings could be added to bolster the forward sample. The forward sample test must produce comparable (to the statutory sample) results. Before rushing to make a biblical prophecy to confirm the roll results, so the dust settles, the concerned 3rd parties like the local newspaper reporters and independent review consultants should, at least, undertake this challenger test.

5. Sales Ratio Studies do not require Stratified Time Adjustments -- As explained before, not all segments of the market move in tandem; hence time adjustment factors in each segment are often different. Applying one median factor generally distorts both ends of the curve, forcing the outer segment values to move further away from the AVM (Roll) values. Again, the State Boards and Industry Technical bodies must require all ratio analyses - from sales sampling to time adjustments to error ratios - performed and broken down into statistically significant price segments. In fast-moving markets, time becomes a critical issue, so the time adjustment factors must be analyzed and applied by statistical segments. Alternatively, even when a median time factor is used in an AVM, it does not pose any threat as it interacts with other variables, including location, and gets corrected.

6. Sales Ratio Studies do not require any meaningful Spatial Tests -- While a system-wide median ratio could be acceptable for a small and mostly homogeneous jurisdiction, it is not very meaningful for large and complex jurisdictions with multiple towns, boroughs, etc. For example, a system-wide coefficient of dispersion (COD) of 15 for New York City is neither very instructive nor very helpful, as a low COD of 9 for Staten Island, a relatively homogeneous borough in the City, may compensate for Brooklyn's 20 due to its highly heterogeneous housing stock. In this example, while Staten Island passes with flying colors, Brooklyn fails even though its overall COD remains compliant. Therefore, the study of assessment equity requires meaningful analysis by major spatial parts and the aforesaid economic/market attributes and segments.

7. Sales Ratio Studies do not require the use of MLS data to Test Data Validity -- Granted, most tax jurisdictions tend to be more careful as to the quality of the sales data (easy picking by media, etc.) than the unsold properties. Yet, this data quality is nowhere as clean and up-to-date as the MLS data that are all professionally inspected and verified. Therefore, the State Boards and other Technical bodies should urge that the jurisdictions develop the ratio-eligible database after comparing the internal sales data with those of the MLS'. Only the (arms-length) sales data as matched and confirmed by the MLS data should qualify for the ratio study. There is a long-term benefit to this exercise as well: By studying the unmatched data, an AI logic could be developed and applied on to the unsold population to isolate (or at least narrow down) the cases requiring immediate attention. An AI-driven auto-regressive data update process is always preferable (inherently more surgical) to the traditional cyclical approach (e.g., update all data on a 5-year cycle), considering only a small percent of the entire population might need attention or update, although costing taxpayers an unnecessary ton.

8. Sales Ratio Studies do not require any Data Convergence schema -- Although the raw sale prices are being compared with the modeled values, no data convergence schema is necessary to make the sale prices closely align with the data. As indicated before, absent the data variables, it is difficult to explain why two very similar homes in very close proximity of each other are fetching somewhat different prices. While an AVM will correct and explain that difference, sales ratio studies will have no explanations. Therefore, sales verification must also include "Effective Age" and "GIS Implications." If the GIS implications are noted alongside the verified sales, the highly impacted sales could easily be avoided, a priori. Similarly, the Effective Age ranges could effectively serve as sub-stratification criteria to compare and analyze the genuinely similar properties. The point is that the sale price alone is inadequate to form any meaningful decision-making.    

9. Sales Ratio Studies have yet to factor in the Impact of Cap on SALT deductions -- The new $10,000 cap on SALT deductions (including property taxes) has started to impact the high-end residential markets, especially in high-tax coastal markets. A report from the New York Federal Reserve concluded that the caps on taxes and mortgage debts "have negatively impacted the housing market" by lowering the sales volume. Of course, the market will take a while to manifest any meaningful medium to the long-term effect. As the volume wanes on the long end of the value curve, sales must be adequately replaced by hand-worked appraisals. It would be imprudent and highly regressive to re-populate that curve's stretch by drawing from the 50th to 75th percentile ranges. That type of re-population or idea perhaps works in physical sciences, but not in economic sciences. State Boards and Technical bodies must recognize and act on this emerging trend.

Sales ratio studies urgently need a fresh and forward look. The median-based one-size-fits-all concept has to be replaced with meaningful market segmentation analyses, coupled with a handful of spatial and economic attribute tests. 

-Sid Som, MBA, MIM

homequant@gmail.com

Link to the Book

Free Sales Ratio Studies for Property Tax Assessment

(Click on the image to enlarge)

US Tax Jurisdictions Only

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Free Home Valuation Site

Free Condo Valuation Site

Free Auto Valuation Site

Read our Books on AVM and Property Valuation

To Analyze a Sales Population, Consider the Expanded Percentile Curve

(Click on the image to enlarge)

As we know, not all segments of the market move in tandem. When the market starts to move up, it generally begins at the bottom of the value strata (start-up homes) and graduates up the value ladder. Therefore, while analyzing a large sales population, it is prudent to use the entire percentile curve (as shown in the above Miami graphic) rather than just the Median as it may musk the actual pictures on both ends of the curve, say below the 25th percentile and above the 75th percentile and more precisely below the 10th and above the 90th.

How to Analyze a Sales Population

1. Single Parameter – Instead of just one parameter (like the Median), it's better to consider the expanded percentile curve, preferably 1st percentile to 99th percentile, avoiding minimum and maximum as they may skew the picture as well.

2. Sample Selection – When confronted with all sales meaning both arms-length and non-arms length and virtually no time to validate the sales, the 5th to 95th percentile sample is more meaningful, without having to spend time on manual validations. Conversely, if the sample comprises only the arms-length sales, the 1st to 99th percentile range could be more meaningful.

3. Outlier Analysis – Therefore, while studying outliers of a sample lacking validation, it's better to consider only the cases below the 5th and above the 95th percentile. Likewise, below 1st and above the 99th could be a better starting point for a validated sample, gradually extending out to the outliers on both ends of the percentile curve (as time permits).

4. Sales Timeframe – When the timeframe is extended (9 to 24 months), sales must be time-adjusted, preferably at the monthly level (deriving monthly time factors). If the sample comprises 3-4 years' of sales, quarterly adjustments will make more statistical sense. When an extended series (e.g., 10+ years) is analyzed, annual factors would be appropriate. Most extended series analyses are performed to detect seasonality in the data.

5. Growth Factors – As we all know, the residential market is as local as it gets. Therefore, a good sales analysis must additionally be broken down to the sub-market level as long as those sub-markets are well-established and accepted. Since the growth rates vary by the market, time adjustment factors must be derived at the sub-market level (e.g., 12% in our example for the City of Miami). Applying national or even regional factors could result in flawed and indefensible results. Time adjustment in AVM is generally different (will be discussed later).

6. Use of Median – Due to time constraints, If one has to choose one parameter to ascertain time's impact, it must be the Median, as it is less prone to outliers (outliers heavily influence average, often distorting the analysis). In an even like that, the sale's Median must be compared with the normalized (by Bldg SF) Median, ensuring they are close to each other.

(Click on the image to enlarge)

7. Spatial Distribution – As part of the sales sampling, one must also ensure that the sales are spatially distributed in line with the population, so a meaningful spatial chart is in order alongside the data tables. In the above example, one must understand that the Median ASP and Median Bldg SF are mutually exclusive, but they may be connected to get a general idea of the ASP/SF, but not for any serious analysis. To analyze the normalized ASP/SF, one needs to create the organic variable (row-wise ASP/SF) and the run percentile stats.

8. Creating Sales Ratios – In the above example, in addition to the percentile analysis of sales, the distribution of sales ratios (ratio of County Market Values to Time-adjusted Sales or ASP) is shown, thus connecting the apples-to-apples dots. The spatial chart additionally depicts the stratified sales ratios. Caution: While creating the sales ratios, one must time adjust the sales to the valuation date (in this case, 01-01-2019) as the tax roll values are as of that date, or else it would be an apples-to-oranges.

9. Regression Values – Ideally, ASP should be modeled (using multiple regressions or any other industry-accepted methodology). The resulting sales ratios of the regression values (which are smoother and statistically more significant) used all analyses, Including defining and removal of the model outliers. Regression values could also be used to challenge the tax roll market values additionally. When there is a paucity of comps, such regression values could also be used to proxy actual comps in a comparables grid.

In a nutshell, to get a better picture of the overall market, an expanded percentile distribution analysis of sales is significantly more meaningful than a simplistic median-based sales analysis. Additionally, normalized values and spatial sales ratios could provide better insight into the building blocks.

-Sid Som, MBA, MIM

homequant@gmail.com

Link to the Book

Sales Ratio Study is largely Ineffective, if not Counter-productive

A Sales Ratio study examines the relationship of Market Values on the Assessment Roll to Time-adjusted Sale Prices (adjusted to the Valuation/Taxable Status Date). A Sales Ratio study, unlike an Automated Valuation Model (AVM), is not an econometric solution that could be used in any meaningful decision-making. Unfortunately, sales ratio studies are often developed and used to test the assessment rolls' metallurgy and progression.

Since sales ratios are developed using sales complexes only, two very similar homes in a given neighborhood - with very different effective ages, say 15 vs. 50 - will be evaluated alike. On the other hand, a properly-developed AVM will effectively assess the differences and return values that are different, yet statistically significant and econometric.

What does a sales complex comprise?

-Sale Price

-Sale Date (to time-adjust sales to valuation/status date)

-Sale Validation (to ensure only arms-length sales are used)

-Classification (to ensure the right class of properties is used)

-Market Value (from the Tax Assessment Roll)

-Assessed Value (when Residential Assessment Ratio or RAR is also required)

Additionally, some consultants retain a few other variables like Town (to evaluate sub-markets if it is a county-wide study) and Living Area (to consider normalized scenarios). Of course, sub-market and normalized ratios are statutorily rare.

So, why does a sales ratio study become an ineffective solution? Let's consider the following reasons...

1. Sales Ratio Studies are at best Heuristic analyses -- Most large and even medium-sized tax jurisdictions have moved to primarily AVM-based tax rolls. Therefore, when the raw sale prices (generally time-adjusted) are compared with the scientifically-derived AVM values (to compute the sale ratio), it is no longer an apples-to-apples comparison. Sale prices do indeed reflect property characteristics (in addition to location, etc.). They are nonetheless highly subjective, reflecting individual (un-equalized) economic behavior, including personal tastes and preferences (e.g., when one is bent on buying a pink house, one will overpay). Exterior walls and conditions are actual modeling variables, while exterior color is not. Therefore, the presence of data variables will force AVMs (hence the tax roll values) to ignore those emotional premiums. Simultaneously, the standalone sale prices in sales ratio studies will fail to differentiate and ignore them.

2. Sales Ratio Studies do not require "Representative" Tests -- The underlying assumption of a sales sample is that it statistically represents the population it is derived from. But that assumption is not necessarily valid. When the sample is large, it tends to be representative at the body of the curve (between the 25th and 75th percentiles), but not necessarily on short (<25th percentile) and long end (>75th percentile) of the curve. The reason is simple: Not all segments of the market move in tandem. When a market starts its upswing, it usually begins at the lower end of the curve, followed by the mid-range and further up. Thus, without a proper representative test, a sales ratio study is, at best, a hit or miss. The additional sub-market or normalized ratios remain equally unreliable.

3. Sales Ratio Studies do not require Price Segmentation Tests -- Sales ratio studies are perfect "one size fits all," meaning only a median-based ratio does the real trick. The absence of the price-segmented (<25th percentile; 25th to 50th percentiles; 50th to 75th percentiles; >75th percentile) ratios is, at best, a limited scope analysis, which is the primary reason why many tax rolls are regressive, i.e., why the middle-class neighborhoods heavily subsidize the wealthy districts. State Boards and Industry Technical bodies must additionally (in addition to the median ratio) require the full price-segmented ratios to minimize the incidence of compensating errors, leading to fair and equitable adjustments    

4. Sales Ratio Studies do not require Champ-Challenger Validations -- Before an AVM is finalized, it is optimized and then tested against a mutually exclusive hold-out sample (Challenger). If the hold-out test results are very similar, the model is considered final (Champ) and is ready to be applied to the population. Of course, when it comes to sales ratio studies, there are no such requirements. A forward sales sample would be an ideal challenger. For example, if the statutory ratio is developed off of the 2018 calendar year sales, it could be tested against a forward sales sample (comprising validated Q1/Q2-2019 sales). Seasoned listings could be added to bolster the forward sample. The forward sample test must produce comparable (to the statutory sample) results. Before rushing to make a biblical prophecy to confirm the roll results, so the dust settles, the concerned 3rd parties like the local newspaper reporters and independent review consultants should, at least, undertake this challenger test.

5. Sales Ratio Studies do not require Stratified Time Adjustments -- As explained before, not all segments of the market move in tandem; hence time adjustment factors in each segment are often different. Applying one median factor generally distorts both ends of the curve, forcing the outer segment values to move further away from the AVM (Roll) values. Again, the State Boards and Industry Technical bodies must require all ratio analyses - from sales sampling to time adjustments to error ratios - performed and broken down into statistically significant price segments. In fast-moving markets, time becomes a critical issue, so the time adjustment factors must be analyzed and applied by statistical segments. Alternatively, even when a median time factor is used in an AVM, it does not pose any threat as it interacts with other variables, including location, and gets corrected.

6. Sales Ratio Studies do not require any meaningful Spatial Tests -- While a system-wide median ratio could be acceptable for a small and mostly homogeneous jurisdiction, it is not very meaningful for large and complex jurisdictions with multiple towns, boroughs, etc. For example, a system-wide coefficient of dispersion (COD) of 15 for New York City is neither very instructive nor very helpful, as a low COD of 9 for Staten Island, a relatively homogeneous borough in the City, may compensate for Brooklyn's 20 due to its highly heterogeneous housing stock. In this example, while Staten Island passes with flying colors, Brooklyn fails even though its overall COD remains compliant. Therefore, the study of assessment equity requires meaningful analysis by major spatial parts and the aforesaid economic/market attributes and segments.

7. Sales Ratio Studies do not require the use of MLS data to Test Data Validity -- Granted, most tax jurisdictions tend to be more careful as to the quality of the sales data (easy picking by media, etc.) than the unsold properties. Yet, this data quality is nowhere as clean and up-to-date as the MLS data that are all professionally inspected and verified. Therefore, the State Boards and other Technical bodies should urge that the jurisdictions develop the ratio-eligible database after comparing the internal sales data with those of the MLS'. Only the (arms-length) sales data as matched and confirmed by the MLS data should qualify for the ratio study. There is a long-term benefit to this exercise as well: By studying the unmatched data, an AI logic could be developed and applied on to the unsold population to isolate (or at least narrow down) the cases requiring immediate attention. An AI-driven auto-regressive data update process is always preferable (inherently more surgical) to the traditional cyclical approach (e.g., update all data on a 5-year cycle), considering only a small percent of the entire population might need attention or update, although costing taxpayers an unnecessary ton.

8. Sales Ratio Studies do not require any Data Convergence schema -- Although the raw sale prices are being compared with the modeled values, no data convergence schema is necessary to make the sale prices closely align with the data. As indicated before, absent the data variables, it is difficult to explain why two very similar homes in very close proximity of each other are fetching somewhat different prices. While an AVM will correct and explain that difference, sales ratio studies will have no explanations. Therefore, sales verification must also include "Effective Age" and "GIS Implications." If the GIS implications are noted alongside the verified sales, the highly impacted sales could easily be avoided, a priori. Similarly, the Effective Age ranges could effectively serve as sub-stratification criteria to compare and analyze the genuinely similar properties. The point is that the sale price alone is inadequate to form any meaningful decision-making.    

9. Sales Ratio Studies have yet to factor in the Impact of Cap on SALT deductions -- The new $10,000 cap on SALT deductions (including property taxes) has started to impact the high-end residential markets, especially in high-tax coastal markets. A report from the New York Federal Reserve concluded that the caps on taxes and mortgage debts "have negatively impacted the housing market" by lowering the sales volume. Of course, the market will take a while to manifest any meaningful medium to the long-term effect. As the volume wanes on the long end of the value curve, sales must be adequately replaced by hand-worked appraisals. It would be imprudent and highly regressive to re-populate that curve's stretch by drawing from the 50th to 75th percentile ranges. That type of re-population or idea perhaps works in physical sciences, but not in economic sciences. State Boards and Technical bodies must recognize and act on this emerging trend.

Sales ratio studies urgently need a fresh and forward look. The median-based one-size-fits-all concept has to be replaced with meaningful market segmentation analyses, coupled with a handful of spatial and economic attribute tests. 

-Sid Som, MBA, MIM

homequant@gmail.com

Link to the Book